A Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint
نویسندگان
چکیده
The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.
منابع مشابه
Analysis of Wind Speed Forecasting Error Effects on Automatic Generation Control Performance
The main goal of this paper is to study statistical indices and evaluate AGC indices in power system which has large penetration of the WTGs. Increasing penetration of wind turbine generations, needs to study more about impacts of it on power system frequency control. Frequency control is changed with unbalancing real-time system generation and load . Also wind turbine generations have more flu...
متن کاملAnalysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint
One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year...
متن کاملEvaluation of two simple wind power forecasting models
This paper investigates the performance of two simple wind power prediction models, an autoregressive one with exogenous input (ARX-model) and a neural network based one, none of which employs weather prediction data. The models are applied for predicting wind power production in three different wind parks, for which data are available. The error of the models is investigated for various foreca...
متن کاملShort Term Load Forecasting Using Empirical Mode Decomposition, Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Regression
The Short-term forecasting of electric load plays an important role in designing and operation of power systems. Due to the nature of the short-term electric load time series (nonlinear, non-constant, and non-seasonal), accurate prediction of the load is very challenging. In this article, a method for short-term daily and hourly load forecasting is proposed. In this method, in the first step, t...
متن کاملWind Power and Electric Load Forecasting
As renewable energy increasingly integrates into the electric power system, electric load forecasting and renewable energy power generation forecasting become more important. In this project, ARIMA and NARX are applied to build load forecasting model focusing on improving statistical and computational efficiency without losing accuracy. ARIMA turns out to be better for short term forecasting wh...
متن کامل